国际援助与国家经济发展相关性研究：以中国为例

国际援助与国家经济发展相关性研究：以中国为例

The research on the relationship between international aid and national economic development

摘 要
本文研究的主题是国际援助与国家经济发展的相关性。作为一项重要的国际关系调节手段和国家外交政策，国际援助对发展中国家的经济发展产生了正向的推动作用和反向的阻碍作用。本文将建立计量模型，以探讨中国在1978至2007年之间的GDP、居民收入和人力资本水平与国际援助之间的统计相关性。主要结论是:1.国际援助与中国国民经济增长、居民收入和人力资本积累水平基本上都呈现出正相关性，无论是在哪个时间阶段，无论是哪种援助形式。并且，绝大部分相关系数都是统计上显著的，只有极个别的如国际援助与人力资本水平（1978-1992），国际援助经济建设项目与人力资本水平的相关系数没有通过统计上的显著性要求。2.与早期相比，1993年之后的国际援助对中国经济发展的影响发生了变化，这主要体现在国际援助对中国居民收入和人力资本水平的正向促进作用正在超过对GDP的影响作用。尤其是对于人力资本来说，它与国际援助的相关系数由1978年-1992年的统计不显著变为1993年-2007年显著的0.0249。而另一方面，随着时间的推移，国际援助对中国GDP增长的影响力度显著下降。3.国际援助中的经济建设项目和社会基础设施建设项目都发挥了其应有的作用，经济建设项目与GDP的相关性，以及社会基础设施建设项目与居民收入和人力资本的相关性都十分显著。4.与GDP和居民收入水平相比，中国的人力资本积累水平与国际援助的相关性最低，受影响程度也最小，这表明一个国家人力资本水平的提高是一个长期和复杂的过程，国际援助在这其中发挥的作用还很有限。

目 录
摘 要 I
1.引言 1
1.1 论文主题及选题意义 1
1.2 国际援助的定义与内涵 1
1.3 经济发展的定义与内涵 3
1.4 本文的研究内容 3
2.文献综述 4
3.方法论 6
4.计量分析 7
4.1 当代国际援助的特点 7
4.1.1 DAC国家和发达国家仍然是主要的援助提供者 7
4.1.2 国际援助的重点和形式的改变 9
4.1.3 国际援助的政治和其他附加条件增多 11
4.1.4发展中国家对待国际援助的态度变化：以中国为例 11
4.2 国际援助与国民经济发展相关性的理论分析 12
4.2.1 国际援助对发展中国家国民经济发展的积极推动作用 12
4.2.2 国际援助对发展中国家国民经济发展的消极阻碍作用 13
4.3 国际援助与国民经济发展的相关性计量研究：以中国为例 14
4.3.1 计量模型的基本结构、变量选择与数据来源 14
4.3.2 计量检验的过程和结果 17
4.3.3 计量检验的总结 29
5.结论 31
6.附录 34
附录1 中国的GDP,居民平均收入和人力资本投资支出 34
附录2 中国接受的国际援助:1978-2007 35
附录3 中国的GDP：1978-2007 37
附录4 中国的居民收入和人力资本投资支出：1978-2007 38
附录5 中国接受的国际援助：1978-2007 38
7.参考文献 39

Abstract: The paper focuses on the theme of relationship between international aid and national economic development. As an important part of international relationship and national diplomatic policy, international aid imposes both positive promoting and negative hindering influence on the economic and social development of aid receivers. The econometric models will be set up to explore the statistic links between GDP, average resident income, human capital volume and international aid in the period of 1978-2007, with China as the country being analysed. The econometric test comes to the conclusion that international aid plays obvious positive promoting role on the economic development of China, especially in the period of 1978-1992. Secondly, the aid flowing into the society infrastructure significantly enhances the human capital level, which could be represented by the expenditure spend on the education and health care. Thirdly, economic international aid imposes more obvious positive promoting effect on GDP than resident income in terms of China.

Content
1. Introduction
1.1 The topic of the dissertation and why I choose the topic
1.2 The research content of this dissertation
1.3 Methodology
1.4 Literature review
2. The development process of international support: history and current situation
2.1 The definition of international support
2.2 The features of modern international assist
2.2.1 DAC members and developed countries are the main assist suppliers
2.2.2 The change in the international assist focus and forms
2.2.3 The political and other added conditions of international assist are getting more and more
2.3 The attitude change of developing countries towards the international assist: take China as example
3. Theory analysis on the relationship between international support and national economic development
3.1 The positive promotion effect imposed on the national economic development by international aid
3.1.1 International aid supplement the funding gap and capital requirement of developing countries
3.1.2 International aid enhances the human capital level of developing countries
3.1.3 International aid creates excellent economic development surroundings for both the givers and the receivers
3.2 The negative hindering influence of international support on the national economic development
3.2.1 The negative influence of dependency on the international aid for receivers
3.2.2 The negative influence of added conditions with international aid
4. The econometric analysis on the relationship between international support and national economic development: take China as instance
4.1 The basic structure of the econometric model
4.1.1 The construction of the multi-variables single equation linear model
4.1.2 The variable selection: explanation variables, explained variables and the controlling variables
4.1.3 The definition of the indexes, time span and data collection method
4.2 The result and conclusion of the econometric analysis
5 Conclusion and policy suggestions